Duke Riley
LB, LSU · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #75 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 124 of ~132 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2024 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #66 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#75).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 232 lbs: faster than 74% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 124 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 19.0 |
| Defense | 169 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 232 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.89 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #66 overall (#5 LB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 72 | Taywan Taylor | redraft #148 |
| 73 | Jordan Willis | redraft #138 |
| 74 | Chris Wormley | redraft #101 |
| 76 | Alex Anzalone | redraft #43 |
| 77 | Daeshon Hall | redraft #202 |
| 78 | Tim Williams | redraft #183 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.