Doug Free
T, Northern Illinois · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #122 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #78 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #122: teams let him slide 44 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northern Illinois: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.19 40-yard dash at 324 lbs: faster than 55% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 124 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2016 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 124 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 324 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.19 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.38 s |
| Shuttle | 4.53 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #78 overall (#6 T) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 119 | Allen Barbre | redraft #63 |
| 120 | Baraka Atkins | redraft #171 |
| 121 | Marcus Thomas | redraft #92 |
| 123 | Fred Bennett | redraft #131 |
| 124 | Mansfield Wrotto | redraft #139 |
| 125 | Jermon Bushrod | redraft #15 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.