Dorian Thompson-Robinson
QB, UCLA · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #140 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2024 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #143 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#140).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UCLA: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 203 lbs: faster than 91% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Passing | 121/230, 880 yds, 1 TD, 10 INT |
| Rushing | 35 att, 187 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 203 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.28 s |
| Shuttle | 4.44 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.63" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #143 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 137 | K.J. Henry | redraft #190 |
| 138 | Darius Rush | redraft #238 |
| 139 | Clayton Tune | redraft #232 |
| 141 | Jaquelin Roy | redraft #194 |
| 142 | Cameron Mitchell | redraft #152 |
| 143 | Israel Abanikanda | redraft #216 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.