Dorance Armstrong Jr.
DE, Kansas · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #116 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 116 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~87%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #161 (#13 at his position); he went #116, 45 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 257 lbs: faster than 56% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 121 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 23.1 |
| Defense | 143 tackles, 34 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 257 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.87 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.12 s |
| Shuttle | 4.23 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.75" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #161 overall (#13 DE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 113 | DaeSean Hamilton | redraft #166 |
| 114 | Da'Shawn Hand | redraft #111 |
| 115 | Joel Iyiegbuniwe | redraft #177 |
| 117 | Jordan Whitehead | redraft #59 |
| 118 | Anthony Averett | redraft #136 |
| 119 | Kyzir White | redraft #61 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.