Dontarrious Thomas
LB, Auburn · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #48 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #75 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#48).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 241 lbs: faster than 78% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 63 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2008 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2008.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 63 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Defense | 104 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 241 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| Shuttle | 4 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #75 overall (#3 LB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 45 | Jake Grove | redraft #86 |
| 46 | Justin Smiley | redraft #64 |
| 47 | Tank Johnson | redraft #82 |
| 49 | Keiwan Ratliff | redraft #113 |
| 50 | Devery Henderson | redraft #43 |
| 51 | Dwan Edwards | redraft #58 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.