Dontae Johnson
DB, North Carolina St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #129 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 overall (#14 at his position), but he lasted until pick #129: teams let him slide 32 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 200 lbs: faster than 80% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 105 of ~146 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2022 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 105 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Defense | 175 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 200 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.82 s |
| Shuttle | 4.24 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 8.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#14 DB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 126 | Khairi Fortt | redraft #223 |
| 127 | Pierre Desir | redraft #86 |
| 128 | Tre Boston | redraft #60 |
| 130 | James White | redraft #40 |
| 131 | Brock Vereen | redraft #180 |
| 132 | Kevin Pierre-Louis | redraft #94 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.