Donnie Jones
P, LSU · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #224 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
P (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 226 of ~240 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2018 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #253 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#224). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at 222 lbs: faster than 44% of STs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 226 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 4 att, 9 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 13 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 222 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.88 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #253 overall (#4 P) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 221 | Tony Pape | redraft #245 |
| 222 | Derrick Pope | redraft #104 |
| 223 | Jacques Reeves | redraft #93 |
| 225 | Matt Mauck | redraft #196 |
| 226 | Christian Ferrara | redraft #246 |
| 227 | Adrien Clarke | redraft #125 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.