DeVonta Smith
WR, Alabama · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #10 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 80 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 84 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 47 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 48.6 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 1 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 411 rec, 5,329 yds, 33 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 170 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 31.13" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 7 | Penei Sewell | redraft #2 |
| 8 | Jaycee Horn | redraft #52 |
| 9 | Patrick Surtain II | redraft #7 |
| 11 | Justin Fields | redraft #9 |
| 12 | Micah Parsons | redraft #1 |
| 13 | Rashawn Slater | redraft #22 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.