Devonta Freeman
RB, Florida St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #103 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #77 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#103). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 206 lbs: faster than 33% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 98 of ~129 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2021 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 98 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| Rushing | 1138 att, 4,720 yds, 38 TD |
| Receiving | 298 rec, 2,263 yds, 12 TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 206 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.11 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Arm / hand | 29.3" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #77 overall (#5 RB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 100 | Brandon Thomas | redraft #228 |
| 101 | Jaylen Watkins | redraft #150 |
| 102 | Bashaud Breeland | redraft #46 |
| 104 | Jalen Saunders | redraft #210 |
| 105 | Bryan Stork | redraft #111 |
| 106 | Bruce Ellington | redraft #135 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.