Devin Smith
WR, Ohio St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #37 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 22 of ~113 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2021 (~19%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #28 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#37).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 196 lbs: faster than 69% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 22 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Receiving | 15 rec, 248 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 196 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 10 reps |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #28 overall (#7 WR) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 34 | Donovan Smith | redraft #13 |
| 35 | Mario Edwards | redraft #67 |
| 36 | T.J. Yeldon | redraft #78 |
| 38 | Preston Smith | redraft #15 |
| 39 | Eddie Goldman | redraft #43 |
| 40 | Dorial Green-Beckham | redraft #132 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.