DeShone Kizer
QB, Notre Dame · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #52 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 18 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2018 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #54 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#52).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.83 40-yard dash at 233 lbs: faster than 44% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 18 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.0 |
| Passing | 275/518, 3,081 yds, 11 TD, 24 INT |
| Rushing | 82 att, 458 yds, 5 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 233 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.83 s |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.4 s |
| Shuttle | 4.53 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #54 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 49 | Ryan Anderson | redraft #147 |
| 50 | Justin Evans | redraft #124 |
| 51 | DeMarcus Walker | redraft #78 |
| 53 | Teez Tabor | redraft #157 |
| 54 | Raekwon McMillan | redraft #110 |
| 55 | Dalvin Tomlinson | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.