Derwin Gray
T, Maryland · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #219 (PIT)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #267 (#17 at his position); he went #219, 48 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2020 (~16%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- School
Maryland: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.26 40-yard dash at 320 lbs: faster than 39% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 320 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.26 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Broad jump | 90" |
| Arm / hand | 34.38" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #267 overall (#17 T) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 216 | Nick Allegretti | redraft #77 |
| 217 | Kris Boyd | redraft #139 |
| 218 | Mike Weber | redraft #245 |
| 220 | Cullen Gillaspia | redraft #212 |
| 221 | Donnie Lewis Jr. | redraft #246 |
| 222 | Kerrith Whyte Jr | redraft #209 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.