Derrius Guice
RB, LSU · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #59 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2019 (~16%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #35 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#59).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 62% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Rushing | 42 att, 245 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 7 rec, 79 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Arm / hand | 30.75" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #35 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 56 | Duke Dawson | redraft #198 |
| 57 | P.J. Hall | redraft #138 |
| 58 | Isaiah Oliver | redraft #98 |
| 60 | James Washington | redraft #133 |
| 61 | DJ Chark | redraft #87 |
| 62 | Brian O'Neill | redraft #13 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.