Derrick Brown
DT, Auburn · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #7 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#7).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.16 40-yard dash at 326 lbs: faster than 12% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~82%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 89 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 35 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 36.9 |
| Defense | 178 tackles, 13 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 326 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.16 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 27" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 8.22 s |
| Shuttle | 4.79 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.13" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#1 DT) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 4 | Andrew Thomas | redraft #25 |
| 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | redraft #9 |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | redraft #2 |
| 8 | Isaiah Simmons | redraft #72 |
| 9 | C.J. Henderson | redraft #97 |
| 10 | Jedrick Wills Jr. | redraft #60 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.