Derek Wolfe
DT, Cincinnati · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #36 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 122 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2020 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #53 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#36).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cincinnati: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.93 40-yard dash at 295 lbs: faster than 45% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 122 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 48 |
| Defense | 225 tackles, 34 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 295 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.93 s |
| Bench press | 33 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.26 s |
| Shuttle | 4.44 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.2" / 10.6" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #53 overall (#9 DT) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 33 | Brian Quick | redraft #110 |
| 34 | Coby Fleener | redraft #66 |
| 35 | Courtney Upshaw | redraft #64 |
| 37 | Mitchell Schwartz | redraft #11 |
| 38 | Andre Branch | redraft #75 |
| 39 | Jackrabbit Jenkins | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.