Derek Newton
T, Arkansas St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #214 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #194 (#17 at his position), close to where he went (#214). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.00 40-yard dash at 311 lbs: faster than 89% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2018 (~65%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 28 |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 311 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.00 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 25.5" |
| Broad jump | 100" |
| 3-cone | 7.76 s |
| Shuttle | 5 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.1" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #194 overall (#17 T) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 211 | Bruce Miller | redraft #122 |
| 212 | Zach Clayton | redraft #227 |
| 213 | Brandyn Thompson | redraft #198 |
| 215 | D'Aundre Reed | redraft #219 |
| 216 | Mikail Baker | redraft #245 |
| 217 | Maurice Hurt | redraft #127 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.