Derek Anderson
QB, Oregon St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #213 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #96 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #213: teams let him slide 117 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.03 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 9% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 78 of ~224 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2018 (~35%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 78 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| Passing | 909/1674, 10,878 yds, 60 TD, 64 INT |
| Rushing | 102 att, 226 yds, 5 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.03 s |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.67 s |
| Shuttle | 4.62 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #96 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 210 | Reggie Hodges | redraft #147 |
| 211 | Calvin Armstrong | redraft #243 |
| 212 | Ryan Riddle | redraft #178 |
| 214 | Pete McMahon | redraft #244 |
| 215 | Daven Holly | redraft #120 |
| 216 | Kevin Vickerson | redraft #83 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.