Denard Robinson
WR, Michigan · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #135 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 55 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2016 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #184 (#22 at his position); he went #135, 49 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 199 lbs: faster than 64% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Passing | undefined/2, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 263 att, 1,058 yds, 5 TD |
| Receiving | 47 rec, 310 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 199 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.22 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #184 overall (#22 WR) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 132 | Devin Taylor | redraft #108 |
| 133 | Levine Toilolo | redraft #134 |
| 134 | Sanders Commings | redraft #226 |
| 136 | Earl Wolff | redraft #164 |
| 137 | Jesse Williams | redraft #237 |
| 138 | Tharold Simon | redraft #169 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.