Demetrius McCray
DB, Appalachian St. · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #210 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #240 (#32 at his position), close to where he went (#210). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Appalachian St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 187 lbs: faster than 27% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 49 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2017 (~61%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 49 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Defense | 73 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 187 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 4 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 7.17 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.7" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #240 overall (#32 DB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 207 | Mike Catapano | redraft #176 |
| 208 | Jeremy Harris | redraft #212 |
| 209 | Brice Butler | redraft #128 |
| 211 | Michael Williams | redraft #208 |
| 212 | Joe Kruger | redraft #245 |
| 213 | Michael Mauti | redraft #150 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.