Dawson Knox
TE, Mississippi · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #96 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 102 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~87%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #118 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#96). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 108 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 26.9 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 13 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 237 rec, 2,730 yds, 28 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 254 lbs |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| 3-cone | 7.12 s |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.38" / 9.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #118 overall (#8 TE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 93 | Miles Boykin | redraft #140 |
| 94 | Jamel Dean | redraft #57 |
| 95 | Oshane Ximines | redraft #128 |
| 97 | Bobby Evans | redraft #136 |
| 98 | Quincy Williams | redraft #26 |
| 99 | Mike Edwards | redraft #97 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.