David Thomas
TE, Texas · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #86 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #89 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#86).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 252 lbs: faster than 67% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 80 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2012 (~71%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 80 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Receiving | 102 rec, 938 yds, 8 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 252 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.05 s |
| Shuttle | 4.34 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #89 overall (#7 TE) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 83 | Anthony Smith | redraft #117 |
| 84 | Brandon Williams | redraft #203 |
| 85 | Brodie Croyle | redraft #179 |
| 87 | David Pittman | redraft #192 |
| 88 | James Anderson | redraft #69 |
| 89 | Rashad Butler | redraft #142 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.