David Reed
WR, Utah · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #156 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 36 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2013 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #78 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #156: teams let him slide 78 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 191 lbs: faster than 16% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 36 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 31 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 6 rec, 68 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 18 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 191 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #78 overall (#9 WR) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 153 | Austen Lane | redraft #133 |
| 154 | Andrew Quarless | redraft #120 |
| 155 | John Skelton | redraft #153 |
| 157 | Arthur Jones | redraft #86 |
| 158 | Matt Tennant | redraft #163 |
| 159 | Riley Cooper | redraft #88 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.