David McMillan
DE, Kansas · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #139 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #259 (#22 at his position); he went #139, 120 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 262 lbs: faster than 95% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 29 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2007 (~60%). Last NFL season: 2007.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 29 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 262 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.11 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #259 overall (#22 DE) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 136 | Roydell Williams | redraft #117 |
| 137 | Ronald Fields | redraft #105 |
| 138 | Boomer Grigsby | redraft #154 |
| 140 | Airese Currie | redraft #216 |
| 141 | Donte Nicholson | redraft #180 |
| 142 | Damien Nash | redraft #189 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.