David Johnson
TE, Arkansas St. · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #241 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Arkansas St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at 260 lbs: faster than 49% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 98 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2016 (~77%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 98 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 4 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 31 rec, 304 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 260 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.28 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 238 | Stoney Woodson | redraft #253 |
| 239 | Ryan Durand | redraft #230 |
| 240 | LaRod Stephens-Howling | redraft #114 |
| 242 | Nick Schommer | redraft #187 |
| 243 | Marko Mitchell | redraft #211 |
| 244 | Ricky Jean-Francois | redraft #70 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.