David Garrard
QB, East Carolina · 2002 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #108 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
East Carolina: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 235 lbs: faster than 46% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 86 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2002 through 2010 (~60%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 86 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 62 |
| Passing | 1406/2281, 16,003 yds, 89 TD, 54 INT |
| Rushing | 380 att, 1,746 yds, 17 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -6 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 235 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.35 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 105 | Brian Williams | redraft #54 |
| 106 | David Thornton | redraft #37 |
| 107 | Omar Easy | redraft #197 |
| 109 | Travis Dorsch | redraft #223 |
| 110 | Mike Echols | redraft #210 |
| 111 | Ben Taylor | redraft #100 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.