Dave Rayner
K, Michigan St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #202 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
K (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #250 (#2 at his position); he went #202, 48 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.00 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 18% of STs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2011 (~53%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Defense | 9 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.00 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #250 overall (#2 K) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 199 | Khari Long | redraft #218 |
| 200 | Chris Myers | redraft #16 |
| 201 | DeAndra Cobb | redraft #213 |
| 203 | Andrew Hoffman | redraft #241 |
| 204 | Chris Kemoeatu | redraft #67 |
| 205 | Derrick Johnson | redraft #168 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.