Darrius Heyward-Bey
WR, Maryland · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #7 (OAK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#7).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Maryland: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.30 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 98% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 144 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2018 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 144 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| Rushing | 15 att, 194 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 202 rec, 2,897 yds, 16 TD |
| Defense | 17 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.30 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.8 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#4 WR) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 4 | Aaron Curry | redraft #95 |
| 5 | Mark Sanchez | redraft #49 |
| 6 | Andre Smith | redraft #30 |
| 8 | Eugene Monroe | redraft #50 |
| 9 | B.J. Raji | redraft #43 |
| 10 | Michael Crabtree | redraft #14 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.