Danny Vitale
FB, Northwestern · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #197 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #259 (#1 at his position); he went #197, 62 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northwestern: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 239 lbs: faster than 27% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2019 (~69%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 44 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 15 rec, 145 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 16 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 239 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 30 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.12 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.63" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #259 overall (#1 FB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 194 | Cory James | redraft #140 |
| 195 | Wes Schweitzer | redraft #70 |
| 196 | Blake Countess | redraft #177 |
| 198 | Derek Watt | redraft #200 |
| 199 | Cody Core | redraft #174 |
| 200 | Kyle Murphy | redraft #190 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.