Danny Gray
WR, SMU · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #105 (SFO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #177 (#24 at his position); he went #105, 72 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
SMU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at 186 lbs: faster than 93% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 13 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2022 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 13 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 9 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 10 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 186 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.33 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| Arm / hand | 31.63" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #177 overall (#24 WR) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 102 | Channing Tindall | redraft #176 |
| 103 | Leo Chenal | redraft #57 |
| 104 | Logan Bruss | redraft #203 |
| 106 | Cade Otton | redraft #61 |
| 107 | Dameon Pierce | redraft #100 |
| 108 | Perrion Winfrey | redraft #221 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.