Curtis Samuel
WR, Ohio St. · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #40 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #42 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#40).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.31 40-yard dash at 196 lbs: faster than 96% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 111 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~74%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 111 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 30 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 30.0 |
| Rushing | 126 att, 729 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 355 rec, 3,717 yds, 24 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 196 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.31 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #42 overall (#5 WR) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 37 | Zay Jones | redraft #75 |
| 38 | Forrest Lamp | redraft #135 |
| 39 | Marcus Maye | redraft #61 |
| 41 | Dalvin Cook | redraft #21 |
| 42 | Marcus Williams | redraft #53 |
| 43 | Sidney Jones | redraft #118 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.