Craig Stevens
TE, California · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #85 (TEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #99 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#85).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 254 lbs: faster than 86% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 109 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2015 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 109 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Receiving | 60 rec, 724 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 23 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 254 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #99 overall (#6 TE) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 82 | DaJuan Morgan | redraft #159 |
| 83 | Jeremy Zuttah | redraft #27 |
| 84 | Harry Douglas | redraft #46 |
| 86 | Tom Zbikowski | redraft #112 |
| 87 | Andre Fluellen | redraft #125 |
| 88 | Bruce Davis | redraft #199 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.