Corey Williams
DT, Arkansas St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #179 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 126 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2012 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #189 (#20 at his position), close to where he went (#179). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.18 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 10% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 126 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 33 |
| Defense | 200 tackles, 27.5 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.18 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.55 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #189 overall (#20 DT) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 176 | Kirk Chambers | redraft #115 |
| 177 | Bo Lacy | redraft #234 |
| 178 | Marko Cavka | redraft #235 |
| 180 | Jim Molinaro | redraft #182 |
| 181 | Nate Lawrie | redraft #199 |
| 182 | Cody Spencer | redraft #151 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.