Corey Graham
DB, New Hampshire · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #168 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 184 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2018 (~96%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #202 (#25 at his position); he went #168, 34 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
New Hampshire: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 195 lbs: faster than 77% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 184 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 33 |
| Defense | 555 tackles, 3 sacks, 18 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 195 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 10 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #202 overall (#25 DB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 165 | Eric Frampton | redraft #144 |
| 166 | Derek Landri | redraft #91 |
| 167 | Kevin Payne | redraft #114 |
| 169 | Roy Hall | redraft #211 |
| 170 | William Gay | redraft #33 |
| 171 | Clint Oldenburg | redraft #221 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.