Connor Colby
OL, Iowa · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #249 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #311 (#21 at his position); he went #249, 62 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.11 40-yard dash at 309 lbs: faster than 74% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~71%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.2 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -1 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 309 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.11 s |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.78 s |
| Shuttle | 4.63 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #311 overall (#21 OL) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 246 | Korie Black | redraft #183 |
| 247 | Tommy Akingbesote | redraft #255 |
| 248 | Moliki Matavao | redraft #220 |
| 250 | John Williams | redraft #203 |
| 251 | Julian Ashby | redraft #174 |
| 252 | Junior Bergen | redraft #256 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.