Christian Jones
OL, Texas · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #162 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 4 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~12%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #84 overall (#13 at his position), but he lasted until pick #162: teams let him slide 78 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.04 40-yard dash at 305 lbs: faster than 85% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 4 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 305 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.04 s |
| 3-cone | 8.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.78 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #84 overall (#13 OL) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 159 | Hunter Nourzad | redraft #152 |
| 160 | Edefuan Ulofoshio | redraft #199 |
| 161 | Dominique Hampton | redraft #237 |
| 163 | Jacob Monk | redraft #135 |
| 164 | Jaylin Simpson | redraft #212 |
| 165 | Rasheen Ali | redraft #172 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.