Chris Rainey
RB, Florida · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #159 (PIT)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 18 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2013 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #179 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#159).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at 180 lbs: faster than 97% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 18 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 26 att, 102 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 14 rec, 60 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 180 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.36 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.5 s |
| Shuttle | 3.93 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.6" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #179 overall (#13 RB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 156 | Shaun Prater | redraft #183 |
| 157 | Bradie Ewing | redraft #225 |
| 158 | Jack Crawford | redraft #86 |
| 160 | Ryan Miller | redraft #198 |
| 161 | Randy Bullock | redraft #81 |
| 162 | Corey White | redraft #106 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.