Chris Gragg
TE, Arkansas · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #222 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #150 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #222: teams let him slide 72 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 96% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2015 (~67%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 24 rec, 251 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.51 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #150 overall (#8 TE) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 219 | D.C. Jefferson | redraft #220 |
| 220 | Ryan Seymour | redraft #191 |
| 221 | Brad Sorensen | redraft #246 |
| 223 | Nick Williams | redraft #71 |
| 224 | Kevin Dorsey | redraft #224 |
| 225 | Eric Herman | redraft #247 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.