Chris Ellis
DE, Virginia Tech · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #72 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2010 (~31%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #87 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#72).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 263 lbs: faster than 83% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 263 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Vertical | 27" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.64 s |
| Shuttle | 4.65 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #87 overall (#11 DE) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 69 | Jacob Hester | redraft #139 |
| 70 | Earl Bennett | redraft #84 |
| 71 | Tavares Gooden | redraft #123 |
| 73 | Jamaal Charles | redraft #11 |
| 74 | Dan Connor | redraft #105 |
| 75 | Reggie Smith | redraft #146 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.