Chris Baker
TE, Michigan St. · 2002 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #88 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 131 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2002 through 2010 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Michigan St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 258 lbs: faster than 23% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 131 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Receiving | 168 rec, 1,763 yds, 15 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 258 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 85 | Kris Richard | redraft #168 |
| 86 | Marquis Walker | redraft #228 |
| 87 | Cliff Russell | redraft #202 |
| 89 | Akin Ayodele | redraft #25 |
| 90 | Seth McKinney | redraft #80 |
| 91 | Brian Westbrook | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.