Chase Roullier
C, Wyoming · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #199 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #195 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#199). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wyoming: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.54 40-yard dash at 312 lbs: faster than 3% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 69 of ~98 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2022 (~70%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 69 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 24 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 24.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 312 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.54 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| Broad jump | 97" |
| 3-cone | 7.6 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #195 overall (#6 C) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 196 | Al-Quadin Muhammad | redraft #87 |
| 197 | Jeremy Clark | redraft #221 |
| 198 | D.J. Jones | redraft #29 |
| 200 | Adam Bisnowaty | redraft #223 |
| 201 | Bucky Hodges | redraft #242 |
| 202 | Pita Taumoepenu | redraft #211 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.