Chase Coffman
TE, Missouri · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #98 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 39 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2016 (~30%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #78 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#98).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.83 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 18% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 39 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Receiving | 18 rec, 177 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.83 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #78 overall (#6 TE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 95 | Rashad Johnson | redraft #62 |
| 96 | Keenan Lewis | redraft #73 |
| 97 | Tyrone McKenzie | redraft #199 |
| 99 | Juaquin Iglesias | redraft #228 |
| 100 | Travis Beckum | redraft #166 |
| 101 | Stephen McGee | redraft #177 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.