Charlie Heck
T, North Carolina · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #126 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #125 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#126). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.16 40-yard dash at 311 lbs: faster than 63% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 67 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~66%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 67 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 15.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 311 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.16 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 8.02 s |
| Shuttle | 4.86 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.75" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #125 overall (#14 T) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 123 | Reggie Robinson II | redraft #235 |
| 124 | Anthony McFarland Jr. | redraft #211 |
| 125 | James Morgan | redraft #247 |
| 127 | K'Von Wallace | redraft #125 |
| 128 | Gabe Davis | redraft #49 |
| 129 | Cameron Clark | redraft #248 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.