Cedric Tillman
WR, Tennessee · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #74 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #59 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#74).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 213 lbs: faster than 22% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 37 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~73%). Plus 3 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 40 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.1 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 71 rec, 833 yds, 5 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 213 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| Arm / hand | 32.75" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #59 overall (#8 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 71 | Kendre Miller | redraft #140 |
| 72 | Garrett Williams | redraft #82 |
| 73 | Jalin Hyatt | redraft #163 |
| 75 | Zach Harrison | redraft #131 |
| 76 | Marte Mapu | redraft #112 |
| 77 | Byron Young | redraft #11 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.