Cassius Marsh
DE, UCLA · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #108 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #181 (#17 at his position); he went #108, 73 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UCLA: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.89 40-yard dash at 252 lbs: faster than 53% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 96 of ~129 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2021 (~74%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 96 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Defense | 132 tackles, 15 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 252 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.89 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.6" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #181 overall (#17 DE) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 105 | Bryan Stork | redraft #111 |
| 106 | Bruce Ellington | redraft #135 |
| 107 | Justin Ellis | redraft #66 |
| 109 | Ross Cockrell | redraft #80 |
| 110 | Maurice Alexander | redraft #112 |
| 111 | Russell Bodine | redraft #56 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.