Carter Warren
OL, Pittsburgh · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #120 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 14 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2024 (~41%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #109 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#120).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 14 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 311 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 35.38" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #109 overall (#12 OL) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 117 | Sidy Sow | redraft #138 |
| 118 | Braeden Daniels | redraft #253 |
| 119 | Chamarri Conner | redraft #48 |
| 121 | Ventrell Miller | redraft #104 |
| 122 | Jon Gaines | redraft #134 |
| 123 | Cameron Young | redraft #207 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.