Carson Vinson
OT, Alabama A&M · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #141 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #209 (#19 at his position); he went #141, 68 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~35%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama A&M: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OT (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 13 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.7 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 314 lbs |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #209 overall (#19 OT) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 138 | Jordan Watkins | redraft #173 |
| 139 | Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins | redraft #92 |
| 140 | Cam Jackson | redraft #171 |
| 142 | Rylie Mills | redraft #196 |
| 143 | Jordan Phillips | redraft #32 |
| 144 | Shedeur Sanders | redraft #141 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.