Carl Nassib
DE, Penn St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #65 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #81 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#65).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 277 lbs: faster than 61% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 99 of ~114 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2022 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 99 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 20 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 20.0 |
| Defense | 128 tackles, 25.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 277 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.27 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.25" / 10.38" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #81 overall (#10 DE) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 62 | James Bradberry | redraft #35 |
| 63 | Adam Gotsis | redraft #66 |
| 64 | Kevin Byard | redraft #9 |
| 66 | Max Tuerk | redraft #230 |
| 67 | Maliek Collins | redraft #25 |
| 68 | Will Redmond | redraft #178 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.