Cameron Artis-Payne
RB, Auburn · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #174 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #174 (#15 at his position), close to where he went (#174).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 50% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2018 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 118 att, 491 yds, 5 TD |
| Receiving | 10 rec, 86 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.13 s |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #174 overall (#15 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 171 | Nick Boyle | redraft #114 |
| 172 | D.J. Alexander | redraft #130 |
| 173 | James O'Shaughnessy | redraft #135 |
| 175 | Keith Mumphery | redraft #176 |
| 176 | Robert Myers | redraft #238 |
| 177 | Deiontrez Mount | redraft #201 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.