Caleb Miller
LB, Arkansas · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #80 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #201 (#10 at his position); he went #80, 121 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 46% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 39 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2007 (~61%). Last NFL season: 2007.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 39 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Defense | 111 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.85 s |
| Shuttle | 3.93 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #201 overall (#10 LB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 77 | Derrick Hamilton | redraft #216 |
| 78 | Bernard Berrian | redraft #59 |
| 79 | Marquis Cooper | redraft #165 |
| 81 | Chris Cooley | redraft #46 |
| 82 | Devard Darling | redraft #147 |
| 83 | Stephen Peterman | redraft #48 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.