Bryce Hager
ILB, Baylor · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #224 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
ILB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #219 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#224). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Baylor: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 234 lbs: faster than 67% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 79 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2020 (~82%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 79 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Defense | 45 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 234 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #219 overall (#9 ILB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 221 | Andre Debose | redraft #247 |
| 222 | Austin Reiter | redraft #81 |
| 223 | Deon Simon | redraft #180 |
| 225 | Jake Rodgers | redraft #198 |
| 226 | Bobby Hart | redraft #61 |
| 227 | Martin Ifedi | redraft #248 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.